A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
